The
Kashmir conflict has grown from a bilateral issue to a danger to the security
and stability of the South Asian region, with deep roots spanning 75 years, a
series of evolutions, and the development of nuclear weapons by both adversary
governments. With China's involvement in Kashmir via the CPEC, the situation
has taken a new turn. The Kashmir issue has a wide and varied impact on
regional stability in South Asia. The long-running rivalry between India and
Pakistan over Kashmir has not only harmed bilateral relations but has also
reached the brink of nuclear war. This conflict has been compounded further by
China's involvement, notably through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC), which has turned it into a complex trilateral territorial problem. Furthermore,
the presence of nuclear weapons elevates the risk of unintentional escalation,
posing a serious threat to the whole region. Persistent proxy conflicts
intensify instability, which is compounded by terrorist vulnerabilities, while
a lack of collaboration impedes larger regional progress. Moreover, the research
has conducted a comprehensive analysis of Literature, articles, papers, and journals. The theoretical implication includes the Regional Security
Complex Theory presented by Barry Buzan in his book “People, State, and Fear” in
which he discussed and mentioned that the relations between two states also
effect the relation of region and globe as well.
Kashmir
is a territorial dispute between two states of south Asian nations named
Pakistan and India since the British left the subcontinent. Kashmir remained the
center point of three wars in 1965, 71, and 99 in which both of the state parties
faced heavy losses in fact in 1971 Pakistan lost half of the territory (East
Pakistan) which is now known as Bangladesh. This issue didn’t stop after three
wars rather it evolved from a territorial dispute between two states to two
nuclear states. In the '70s and '90s, both states attained nuclear weapons and the Kashmir
issue moved on to the next step and became a nuclear lash point also known as the nuclearization of the Kashmir issue.[1]
This nuclearization of Kashmir poses a threat to the whole region in terms of
security and stability.
Due
to clashes on the border (LoC), terror attacks in both states which they blame
each other for, increasing insurgency, and all-out wars, transformed the valley
of paradise into the valley of death. Later in history, after the Mumbai attack
in which India blamed Pakistan for its involvement in the attack, Delhi suspended
the “composite dialogues” that were taking place to find a peaceful solution
to the Kashmir dispute. In 2019 India again blamed Pakistan for the attack in
Pulwama on Indian soldiers and launched an operation on the night of 26 February across
the board which was responded to accurately by Pakistani forces.
Since both states became nuclear power, the issue of Kashmir and bilateral talks to resolve the issue has been suspended and the shape of the war on Kashmir between the two states has also been changed from traditional to non-traditional which involved proxies, diplomacy, economy, limits attacks, violation cease-fire.China claims some of the areas of Kashmir (Ladakh, Aksai China, Shaksgam valley) as its part of territory. The main cause of the war was a dispute over the sovereignty of the widely separated Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh border regions. Aksai Chin, claimed by India to belong to Ladakh and by China to be part of Xinjiang, contains an important road link that connects the Chinese regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. After the war, China succeeded in retaining control of 14,700 square miles (38,000 square km) of territory in Aksai Chin.
Source:
BBC
The issue evolved to new dynamics when China entered Gilgit in the form of CPEC in
which they are going to make direct investments, building infrastructure, and a network
of roads. This involvement in Gilgit expanded the issue to China as well because
if India tried to attack Gilgit and it affected the investment of Kashmir
then China would also participate to protect its investment.
Hypothesis:
Pakistan,
India, and China had been in a triangular issue that exerted the Geo-Political and
Geo-strategic implications on the whole region.
Discussion and Analysis:
Pakistan, India China share a common border and common territorial Dispute where Sino-India have conflict in Tibet, Aksai China, and Ladakh while India has a dispute over Gilgit, Jammu, and Kashmir.India and China claim the territory based on their history that these territories belong to them historically while on the other hand, Pakistani claim is on the basis that during partition each princely state was allowed to choose their fate, and the majority of the Kashmir was in the favor of Pakistan.
Since both states attained nuclear Power and
weapons, the issue of Kashmir became nuclearized and put the security and
stability of the South Asian region in question mark that if both states indulged
in a nuclear war on the Kashmir issue, it would not only affect India and
Pakistan but also affect the whole south Asian region and cause nuclear winter. Since both states attained nuclear states only one
major war was fought which was Kargil, since then no major war has been fought
between both states but the mode of war shifted from traditional to
non-traditional in the form of Propaganda, proxies, skirmishes on LoC, and support
to the separatist groups.
According to the Lenz of regional security complex
theory, the interaction between two states affects the whole region and
sometimes the global system. This issue also has major consequences for
regional stability. The conflict diverts resources from development to military
preparation, hindering economic progress and collaboration. Furthermore, the
presence of nuclear weapons elevates the risk of unintentional escalation,
posing a serious threat to the whole region. Persistent proxy conflicts
intensify instability, which is compounded by terrorist vulnerabilities, while
a lack of collaboration stifles broader regional prosperity.
The resolution of the Kashmir issue is important to
restoring stability. Not only would effective conflict resolution lessen
existing tensions, but it would also allow for more regional collaboration,
economic growth, and humanitarian improvement. Understanding the multifaceted
impact of the Kashmir issue is crucial for ensuring long-term stability and
peace in the area as South Asia navigates these issues of Security complex.
India and Pakistan's nuclear arsenals add an ugly dimension to the battle. The
fear of nuclear escalation emphasizes the need of dispute resolution. Buzan's
concept of regional security complexes outlines how common security perceptions
shape relationships among governments within a region. This complex shows the interaction
of regional security conventions, alliances, and rivalries.
But in the case of the Sino-China territorial dispute, after the 1962 war, they haven’t fought a single war against each other, and even in the skirmishes in Ladakh they didn’t even fire a bullet at each other rather they fought with bare hands. On the other hand, the hostility of Pakistan and India is on another level which also includes 3 all-out wars and skirmishes. The world has a self-help and anarchic system in the world so every state has the responsibility of protecting its territory which could be in the form of an arms race, alliance building, or getting support from superpowers. In the case of the Indo-Pak issue on Kashmir, they are building their arms and going into the arms race at a massive level. (Stats about military assets of both states).
India possesses nearly 164 nuclear warheads, and
air-launch nuclear capabilities, sea-based, land-based and. In the
documents, India has declared the no-first-use policy of nuclear
weapons in any war or circumstance but after August 2019, the debate inside the
Delhi administration has initiated about the reconsideration of the “No First
Use” policy of nuclear weapon
On
the other hand, Pakistan possesses approximately 170 warheads. The
number of nuclear warheads has been exceeded as according to the U.S. Defense
Intelligence Agency report projected that Pakistan would have 60-80 warheads by
2020. If the growth rate trend continues, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could grow
to 220 to 250 warheads by 2025. Pakistan detaches nuclear warheads from
missiles and will only assemble one if it is to be deployed. Pakistan, unlike
India, has not declared a “No First Use” policy, instead focused on smaller
battlefield or "tactical" nuclear weapons to counter India's larger
and stronger conventional forces. [2]
Digging deep into the discussion of the arms race, both
neighbors contain the best delivery system of nuclear weapons. According
to the Arms Control Association (ACA), Pakistan's nuclear delivery systems
comprise at least four short-range and two medium-range ballistic missiles.
Several more missiles are being developed, including an intercontinental
ballistic missile (ICBM) with a range of 7,000 kilometers. According to the
ACA, India, which is also constructing two intercontinental ballistic missiles,
already has an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of delivering a
single warhead over 3,000 kilometers.
The shadow of nuclear weapons in both states makes the Kashmir issue a nightmare. During a speech after the 26 February, Balakot attack, the PM of Pakistan Imran Khan said “We are two
nuclear states, so India has to reason before planning for any kind
of operation against us, and if India launched any kind of attack on Pakistan,
we have no other option but to retaliate” in his address to the nation after
Pulwama crisis.[3] On the other hand, Defense
Minister Rajnath Singh on Kargil Divas reiterated that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) will be returned to India and that the POK remains an integral part
of India.[4]
These are the statements from the ruling parties of the respective states and
it is very obvious that both states are in major security dilemmas and the
tensions can escalate anytime and can take any direction.
Possibility of nuclear war:
The prospect
of a nuclear war and the rise of chances of nuclear winter as a result of the Kashmir
issue is highly alarming. The region is marked by severe historical
animosities, current territorial conflicts, and Indo-Pak possession of nuclear
arsenals. The presence of nuclear weapons adds an unsettling dimension to the
conflict dynamics.
In the event of a large-scale military escalation
triggered by the Kashmir issue, the potential for the use of nuclear weapons
cannot be dismissed. Any nuclear exchange would have catastrophic consequences,
not only causing immediate destruction but also potentially leading to a
"nuclear winter." A nuclear winter scenario involves the injection of
massive amounts of soot and dust into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight and
causing a significant drop in global temperatures. This could result in
agricultural failures, famine, and disruption of ecosystems on a global scale.
The recent tensions between both states raised concerns about the Kashmir issue
being a nuclearized issue between two fragile states, particularly after the Pulwama
crisis.
However, it is important to note that the global
community is acutely aware of the devastating consequences of nuclear warfare.
International efforts have been directed at preventing such an outcome, with
diplomatic channels, conflict resolution initiatives, and arms control
agreements aimed at curbing nuclear risks in the region. While the risk of
nuclear war and nuclear winter in the Kashmir conflict is a dire concern, the
awareness of these potential consequences has, to some extent, encouraged
restraint and diplomatic engagement among the involved parties and the
international community.
Role of China in Kashmir Issue:
Furthermore, the existence of nuclear weapons raises
the possibility of unintended escalation, which poses a major threat to the
whole area. Persistent proxy wars exacerbate instability, which is exacerbated
by terrorist weaknesses, while a lack of coordination stymies wider regional
advances.[5]
Over the last two decades, China's backing for Pakistan's efforts to
internationalize the Kashmir conflict has waned. Furthermore, China has not
supported Pakistan's frequent requests to the United Nations to demilitarize
Jammu and Kashmir and execute decades-old resolutions. Simultaneously, Chinese
officials have quietly expressed sympathy for Pakistan's position on Kashmir.[6]
Despite
its close connections with Pakistan, China has emphasized peacekeeping over war
preserving Pakistan's interests in several crises. Following the seizure of
Indian positions in Kargil by Pakistani soldiers and Kashmiri militants in
1999, China urged Pakistan and India to "respect the Line of Control (LOC)
and resume negotiations at an early date by the spirit of the
Lahore declaration," indicating its preference to maintain the status quo
along the LOC that separates Pakistani and Indian Kashmir.[7]
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has
emerged as a revolutionary project with enormous regional and geopolitical
implications, significantly altering the already convoluted Kashmir conflict.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China's Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI), is a large network of roads, railroads, pipelines,
and energy projects that connects China's western region to Pakistan's Gwadar
Port on the Arabian Sea. However, the corridor's route across disputed
territory, as well as its geopolitical consequences, have had a significant
influence on the Kashmir problem and the larger regional dynamics.
The CPEC route passes through Gilgit-Baltistan and
Azad Jammu and Kashmir, both of which are part of India-Pakistan's greater
Kashmir conflict. This geopolitical decision has alarmed India, which considers
these areas to be a part of its sovereign sovereignty. India has always voiced
concern about any infrastructure development in these disputed areas, viewing it
as a violation of its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
The impact of the CPEC on the Kashmir
issue is two-fold:
1.
Exacerbation of
Geopolitical Tensions:
The CPEC's path through disputed areas has
heightened pre-existing geopolitical problems. China's presence in these areas
has irritated India, which sees it as supporting Pakistan's territorial
ambitions. The CPEC has further strained relations between India and Pakistan,
complicating an already tough Kashmir dispute. The idea that the development of
the CPEC indirectly reinforces Pakistan's sovereignty over these regions has
heightened India's concerns.
2.
China's Involvement and
Internationalization:
China's strategic involvement in the CPEC has
internationalized the Kashmir conflict to some extent. Other countries are
concerned by China's involvement in the region since it is a major global
power. The CPEC's route across disputed territory highlights the importance of
the Kashmir issue in the context of regional stability. China's participation
in the project, as well as its potential influence in the region, has attracted
the interest of countries outside of South Asia.
CONCLUSION:
Following a thorough examination, the trilateral
issue includes economic, historical, and geopolitical components that influence
regional and global power dynamics. The unresolved condition of the Kashmir
issue affects not just ties between two governments, but also economic
corporations, regional institutions, and the possibility of nuclear war. So, in
order to improve regional security and stability, as well as limit the
possibility of nuclear war between two nations, which would have a
destabilizing effect on the entire area, it is critical to resolve the world's
oldest conflict, the "Kashmir issue." And the issue can be resolved
by having better economic ties, people-to-people connection, religious
connections like the Nankana Sahab corridor, and Government level peace-building initiatives from the both sides.
REFERENCE
written By :Muhammad Ehsan