Indian Elections: Implications for Regional Stability

Indian Elections: Implications for Regional Stability

India's aspiration to assume a leadership role in the region depends on its ability to address domestic challenges, strengthen relationships with neighbouring countries, and resolve the longstanding issues of Jammu and Kashmir. The world is awaiting the outcome of India’s general elections with a bated breath. The seven-phase elections will conclude on June 1 and counting of votes is scheduled to take place on June 4.

 

By Altaf Hussain Wani


Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ten-year tenure, India has undergone a significant transformation, marked by an increasingly authoritarian rule. The monumental elections to elect 543 members of the Lok Sabha (lower house) are particularly being observed keenly in the SAARC nations, due to their potential impact on regional stability and international relations. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under Modi's leadership, is aiming for a third consecutive term and has set a target of over 370 seats. Media outlets that support Modi and his Hindutva philosophy predict a landslide victory for the BJP. However, independent observers believe that the opposition alliance, known as INDIA, may still pose a significant challenge, contrary to the narrative pushed by government-aligned media.

 

While it is too early to predict the election results with certainty, one can speculate on how India's future may unfold depending on which of the two main contenders emerges victorious. Impartial observers, who have been closely monitoring Modi's iron-fisted rule, view the prospect of a third term as a potential risk to peace and stability in South Asia. They argue that another term for Modi could amplify India's global ambitions and regional hegemony.


The ruling party has consistently expressed its commitment to "Akhand Bharat", a concept championed by Hindu nationalist parties that has raised concerns among India's neighbours. A mural in the new parliament building in New Delhi, depicting ‘ancient India’ including regions now part of Pakistan and other countries, exemplifies the BJP's promotion of this expansionist ideology. India's neighbours have been critical of this project and are genuinely worried about the threats it poses to their territorial sovereignty. The idea of restoring the territorial unity of the Indian subcontinent under a unified Hindu-majority nation is not universally accepted and has sparked considerable controversy. This concept is supported by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the BJP.

 


A potential third term for the BJP is also seen as a continuation of the erosion of India's secular and democratic principles. During Modi's ten-year tenure, India's secular credentials have faced substantial criticism. Since 2014, Indian society has witnessed a surge in communal conflicts, violent incidents, and an increase in xenophobia, intolerance, racism, and discrimination. Key events such as the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC), the Ayodhya verdict and subsequent construction of the Ram Temple, appointments of Hindu nationalist sympathisers to significant positions, infusion of Hindu ideology into education and culture, restrictions on minority rights and freedoms, biased policies against Muslims and other minorities, erosion of secular institutions, and the judiciary's apparent alignment with the BJP's agenda have profoundly undermined India's secular democracy.

 


The consequences of a third term for Modi could be far-reaching and damaging to India's secular fabric, democratic institutions, and social cohesion.

 


Here are some potential outcomes:

 Hindu nationalist ideology may become further entrenched, marginalising minority communities and undermining the principles of equality and justice.

 

#The judiciary, media, and other institutions may face increased pressure to conform to the BJP's agenda, compromising their independence and integrity.

 

#The concept of Hindutva (Hindu-ness) may become even more dominant, potentially leading to a formal declaration of India as a Hindu state.

 

#Muslims, Christians, and other minorities may face heightened discrimination, violence, and exclusion from the political and social mainstream.

 

#The promotion of Hindu-centric education, history, and culture may accelerate, suppressing diverse perspectives and India’s pluralistic heritage.

 

#Dissent may be met with increased surveillance, censorship, and repression, silencing critical voices and undermining democratic freedoms.

 

#The polarisation and fragmentation of Indian society may worsen, potentially leading to increased communal tensions, violence, and social unrest.

 

#The very foundations of India's secular democracy, enshrined in the Constitution, may be challenged or even rewritten to accommodate the BJP's ideology.

 

#A permanent shift towards authoritarianism may make it challenging for opposition parties to restore democratic values, secularism, and the rule of law in the future.

 

The BJP's stringent stance on the Jammu and Kashmir issue has resulted in heightened tensions with Pakistan, raising the possibility of escalating conflict. Additionally, India's growing rivalry with China could lead to increased military build-up and tensions in the region. India's aspirations for regional influence might result in a more assertive approach towards its smaller neighbours, potentially disrupting the balance of power in the region. The expansionist agenda of the BJP could escalate tensions with neighbouring nations. However, the impact of India's emergence as a regional hegemon under the BJP will depend on how it chooses to exercise its power and influence in the region.

 


If Narendra Modi secures a third term, his government's policies in Jammu and Kashmir may include:

 

#Continued crackdown on dissent, leading to increased tensions and potential human rights violations.

 

#Increased security measures, with additional security forces and strict measures to maintain control and prevent unrest.

 

#Promotion of Hindu nationalism, potentially altering the demographics of the region.

 

These actions could result in the continued exclusion of the Kashmiri population and heightened polarisation and marginalisation of the majority community. Conversely, a victory for the INDIA alliance is expected to steer the country back towards secularism, protect minority rights, and recalibrate its relationships with neighbouring countries. India needs stable leadership and a unifying approach to move away from the politics of anarchy and polarisation. In just a few days, the world will learn whether Indians have voted in favour of a progressive alliance or a party that has thrived on falsehoods and communal frenzy.

 

Tailpiece: India's regional influence may have expanded under BJP leadership, but its advancement as a regional power remains a distant dream due to formidable challenges and competition from other regional powers. India's aspiration to assume a leadership role in the region depends on its ability to address domestic challenges, strengthen relationships with neighbouring countries, and resolve the longstanding issue of Jammu and Kashmir.

 

The author is the chairman of the Islamabad-based think tank, Kashmir Institute of International Relations (KIIR).

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