A Threat of Nuclear Mushroom Looms Over South Asia Casting a Dark Shadow

The Kashmir conflict has grown from a bilateral issue to a danger to the security and stability of the South Asian region, with deep roots spanning 75 years, a series of evolutions, and the development of nuclear weapons by both adversary governments. Kashmir remained the center point of three wars in 1965, 71, and 99 in which both of the state parties faced heavy losses in fact in 1971 Pakistan lost half of the territory (East Pakistan) which is now known as Bangladesh.

Muhammad Ehsan

This issue didn’t stop after three wars rather it evolved from a territorial dispute between two states to two nuclear states. In the 70s and 90s, both states attained nuclear weapons and the Kashmir issue moved on to the next step and became a nuclear flash point also known as the nuclearization of the Kashmir issue. This nuclearization of Kashmir poses a threat to the whole region in terms of security and stability. Since both states attained nuclear status only one major war was fought which was Kargil, Rather the mode of war shifted from traditional to non-traditional in the form of Propaganda, proxies, skirmishes on LoC, and support to the separatist groups.

Long-Running Rivalry Between India And Pakistan Over Kashmir

With China's involvement in Kashmir via the CPEC, the situation has taken a new turn. The Kashmir issue has a wide and varied impact on regional stability in South Asia. The long-running rivalry between India and Pakistan over Kashmir has not only harmed bilateral relations but has also reached the brink of nuclear war.This conflict has been compounded further by China's involvement, notably through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which has turned it into a complex trilateral territorial problem. Furthermore, the presence of nuclear weapons elevates the risk of unintentional escalation, posing a serious threat to the whole region. Persistent proxy conflicts intensify instability, which is compounded by terrorist vulnerabilities, while a lack of collaboration impedes larger regional progress.

According to the Lenz of regional security complex theory, the interaction or conflict among regional states affects the whole region and sometimes the global system. This issue also has major consequences for regional stability. The conflict diverts resources from development to military preparation, hindering economic progress and collaboration. Furthermore, the presence of nuclear weapons elevates the risk of unintentional escalation, posing a serious threat to the whole region. Persistent proxy conflicts intensify instability, which is compounded by terrorist vulnerabilities, while a lack of collaboration stifles broader regional prosperity.

Resolution Of The Kashmir

The resolution of the Kashmir issue is important to restoring stability. Not only would effective conflict resolution lessen existing tensions, but it would also allow for more regional collaboration, economic growth, and humanitarian improvement. Understanding the multifaceted impact of the Kashmir issue is crucial for ensuring long-term stability and peace in the area as South Asia navigates these issues of Security complex. India and Pakistan's nuclear arsenals add an ugly dimension to the battle. The fear of nuclear escalation emphasizes the need for dispute resolution.

Buzan's concept of regional security complexes outlines how common security perceptions shape relationships among governments within a region. This complex shows the interaction of regional security conventions, alliances, and rivalries. The world has a self-help and anarchic system in the world so every state has its own responsibility of protecting its own territory which could be in the form of an arms race, alliance building, or getting support from superpowers. In the case of the Indo-Pak issue on Kashmir, they are building their arms and going into the arms race at a massive level.

No First Use Policy Of Nuclear Weapons

India possesses nearly 164 nuclear warheads and has air-launch nuclear capabilities, sea-based, and land-based. In the documents, India has clearly declared the no-first-use policy of nuclear weapons in any war or circumstance but after August 2019, the debate inside the Delhi administration has initiated about the reconsideration of the “No First Use” policy of nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, Pakistan possesses approximately 170 warheads. The number of nuclear warheads has been exceeded as according to the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report projected that Pakistan would have 60-80 warheads by 2020. If the growth rate trend continues, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could grow to 220 to 250 warheads by 2025.

Unresolved Condition Of The Kashmir Issue Affects

Following a thorough examination, the trilateral issue includes economic, historical, and geopolitical components that influence regional and global power dynamics. The unresolved condition of the Kashmir issue affects not just ties between the two governments, but also economic corporations, regional institutions, and the possibility of nuclear war.

So, in order to improve regional security and stability, as well as limit the possibility of nuclear war between two nations, which would have a destabilizing effect on the entire area, it is critical to resolve the world's oldest conflict, the "Kashmir issue." The issue could be resolved by having better economic ties, people-to-people connections, religious connections like the Nankana Sahab corridor, and Government-level peace-building initiatives from both sides.

The writer is a student of Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, Islamabad, and is currently serving as an intern at the Kashmir Institute of International Relations.

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