Kashmir and the emergence of new normal
Kashmir and the emergence of new normal
By Abdul Basit
Abstract:
Indian regime under the leadership of Modi is working on the agenda of ‘Akhand Bharat’. Indian government has perpetuated unprecedented violations of human rights in both of its tenure. The attempt of scrapping the political autonomy of Kashmiris by abrogating article 370 and 35A has shown the Nazist mindset of Modi regime. They have put themselves in the fallacy of making India a superpower of Asia. To achieve this aim, they are using Kashmir as a tool to show their unattended military muscle. They are making the security environment of South Asia fragile through actions like Balakot strikes and false claims of surgical strikes. The Indian government wants to elevate the already existing security dilemma of the region to gain political populism. India euphoria of conducting failed strikes and then Balakot episode is an indication that India is working to make its military adventures a new normal. This thought process has severe implications for international peace and stability. The emergence of this militarized new normal between two nuclear states needs to be addressed, otherwise the consequences would be insufferable. The research methodology used in this paper is mixed method research. The study covers both qualitative and quantitative data to strengthen the arguments and to understand the prevailing situation in Kashmir, emergence of new normal and its impacts on regional and international peace.
Introduction:
World has witnessed a successful wave of decolonization in second half of 20th century, but decolonization of Kashmir is still lingering at the United Nations. The spirit of decolonization was to transfer power to the indigenous population of a region by taking the doctrine of self-determination and political equality as its guiding principles. Since the independence of India and Pakistan, Kashmiris are struggling to get their basic rights and right of self-determination that has been make sure by international law.
Indian government on August 5th, 2019 scrapped the special status of Kashmir by revoking article 370 and 35A. Revoking this special status to fully integrate Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir into India has been a long-standing political and ideological demand of Modi’s government. The Indian government wants to change the demography of Kashmir. The alteration in the demography of Kashmir will result in excessive violation of human rights, International Humanitarian law and can lead to genocide in Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
After abrogation of the said articles, Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir has been completely cut off from the rest of the world through a combined imposition of physical, psychological, and electronic isolation to ensure its surrender. Kashmir has been turned invisible even inside Kashmir. The communication lockdown, restrictions to grant humanitarian access are violations of IHL and human rights norms. This recent action of Indian government has challenged the international peace and security by escalating tensions in the region. Jammu and Kashmir are the most militarized region in the world, the recent act of India created instability and heightened the potential for accelerating the violence. The issue is also important to be brought into Limelight because Kashmir is elephant in the room in South Asian politics. Kashmir is a nuclear flashpoint the very nature of the issue can have implications for regional peace and peace at the global level.
India made security environment of South Asia fragile by crossing the international borders and engaged in air battle with Pakistan. The reason behind Indian madness requires deep understanding of new normal mantra, which brings forth newfangled rules of engagement. The act of breaching the sovereignty and autonomy of a state is clearly abnormal and illegal. The sovereignty and territorial integrity have been turned under the shade of the modernized international arena. India while following suite, destroyed the basic understanding of nuclear deterrence since there is no other example of creating new normal in the existence of nuclear deterrence. Therefore, it seems like either ‘normal’ is accepted to be logical with the nuclear deterrence or ‘abnormal’ to refuse it. This attempt to create the situation of new normal by India leads to unsettled definition of nuclear deterrence. It will lead the security environment of region toward instability resulting in events like Balakot.
The current India moves in occupied Kashmir can be seen through the prism of Kautilya ideology, Kautilya in his book Arthashastra said that, “a large population is a source of political, economic and military strength of a nation”. He suggests calculative and brutal measures to protect the interest of a state. The conflict is continuously increasing with bitterness and intransigence resulting in human tragedy. India maximizes his power in order to become a regional hegemon. India is one of the biggest buyers of weapons from developed countries and also it can lead towards world powerful state status. Since 1947 Thousand of Kashmiri have been killed and disappeared.
Through the prism of realism, the international system is anarchic in nature and for the survival of a state they pursue more power. India maximized its military modernization by increasing its defense budget of 9.4 percent this year as compared to last year's budget. Indian conventional and strategic military strength encouraged it to abrogate the special status of Kashmir, which reflects Indian hegemonic strategic design.
Article 35A and 370:
“Kashmir for the Kashmiri” movement was started by the Pandits of Kashmir in 1920s. Maharaja Hari Singh of Kashmir, on April 20, 1927 enacted hereditary state subject order, which granted the respective state subjects with the rights of opportunities in government offices and the right to land use and ownership.This law also regulated migrants of the state. After the independence of India, the Jammu and Kashmir State joined the union of India through an instrument of accession signed by Hari Singh in October 1947.
“Article 35A defining the classes of persons who are or shall be permanent resident of the state Jammu and Kashmir. It also confers on such permanent residents any special rights and
Privileges or imposing upon other persons any restrictions as respects.
- Employment under the state government.
- Acquisition of immovable property in the state.
- Settlement in the state, or
- Right to scholarships and such other forms of aid as the state government may provide”.
Article 35A was not a part of original constitution of India, it was formulated under the Delhi agreement 1952, between Sheikh Abdullah and Jawaharlal Nehru. This article was a byproduct of article 370 of the Indian constitution.[1] The article 370 was drafted by Sheikh Abdullah in late 1947. He argued that this article should be placed permanent in Indian constitution and not to be placed as temporary.[2] The article 370 allows the Indian administered region jurisdiction to make its own laws in all matter except defense, finance, foreign affairs and communication. It established a separate constitution and a separate flag.[3] These articles can be amended by the Jammu and Kashmir parliament, but Indian government dismissed the state assembly by bringing the governor’s rule. After revoking of these articles, the special status of Jammu and Kashmir changed to a union territory, preceded by imposition of curfew in the state.
Implications of Abrogation of Articles on Jammu and Kashmir:
Maharaja Hari Singh offered stand and still agreement to India and Pakistan on 12 August 1947. The motive which has been analyzed historically is that Maharaja was willing to remain Independent either of joining India and Pakistan. The formulae summarized on 3rd June provided immunity to remain as independent state. Jammu and Kashmir were Muslim majority state with rich resources and great water reservoirs, having a great attraction for the newly formed states. Getting into pieces after 22 Oct 1947 state became the field of experiments for India and Pakistan, manipulating the free will of people by certain un-constitutional tactics to get the land annexed.
Abrogation of articles 370 and 35A in Jammu and Kashmir will bring up serious changes soon. There is not up to date news from the newly annexed territory as there is lockdown, breakdown of internet and mainstream media coverage.[1] India since its occupation tried her best to change the demography of state. Many endeavors were made to change demography even by unjust means like massacre in Jammu in November 1947. In 2015 Rajnath Singh, then home minister of India claimed a plan of settling tens of thousands of non-Muslim and non-Kashmiris into Muslim majority districts of Jammu and Kashmir.[2] India intended to place 200,000 to 300,000 Hindus in the state by 2015, mainly to outnumber the Muslim majority in the state. The facts are considered prior the provocation of 370, when the state Indian held Kashmir was under state subject. Provoking the special status on 5th August now the center Indian government has got the constitutional right to settle any Indian resident into the state.
Application of Israeli Model in Kashmir:
World is fighting against the Covid19 and Indian leaders are busy usurping the rights of Kashmiri people. Indian Occupied Kashmir is under strict curfew since August 5, 2019 and Kashmir is going to become another Palestine. The new domicile laws in Jammu and Kashmir is same as Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands. It is glaring attempt to colonise Kashmir and populate it with new and old colonisers to make Kashmiris minority in their own Land. Indian government officials also talked about this well-thought-out Israeli-style solution for Kashmir. This settler colonialism project brings tragic consequences for Kashmiris[1].
The new domical policy for J&K clearly shows the intension of right-wing extremist BJP lead Government. The domicile policy says any resident being staying in Jammu and Kashmir for 15 years could be entertained by the citizenship of state or studied for a period of seven years and appeared in class 10 or 12 examinations in educational institutions located in the state. Permanent residency rights also given to government officials and their children who have served in the state for 10 years.
Modi’s racist government and unjust laws has been enacting lately are like Israeli laws, which was practiced by Israel for decades in Palestine. The Indian government copying Israel to occupy Kashmiri Territories and deny its population their right to self-determination.[1]
Sources like mainstream media reported about 430,000 citizenships of state to Hindus up till 20 August 2020.[2] The demographic change results in manipulating the democratic consent of a population of a specific region over some specific issue. As Ibn-e-Khaldun assserted in his theory of ‘Rise and Fall’ that ‘the growth of dense population is generally favorable to the maintenance and increase of imperial power’.[3] The main aim of RSS agenda is to get Jammu and Kashmir annexed by any mean, as they did right after the independence under supervision of Sardar Patel in case of Hyderabad state and others. Under the UNSC resolution people of Jammu and Kashmir must decide their future through plebiscite.[4] By changing the demography there has been laid the foundation of manipulating the free will of people residing in J & K by adding up a great numbers of non-Kashmiris who would have right to use their will in plebiscite If there would any . India is following Israelis model by making non state residents the citizens of state.
Economic disparity and Loopholes in Jammu and Kashmir:
There are many more drawbacks this provocation is going to cast Sheikh Ashiq Ahmed, president of Kashmir chamber of commerce and industries noted that the economy of state is been struggling. Exports of fresh and dry fruits is one of the main components of the economic system of Jammu and Kashmir which has been hit severely by long lasting lockdown.
New developments after revocation of article will also bring unemployment, imperialism, and monopoly of main streamed business tycoons in the state. As mentioned earlier the Scio economic conditions of public has become worst, and the prospects of repair in economy had been shirked already the people of Kashmir are afraid of lay man to lose his land in hands of any business tycoon offering a handsome incentives. Job opportunities would be shrinked too as hundreds of thousands of people are getting citizenship in no time. Officials are directed by central government to entertain the request/ application for domicile in 15 days for rejection or approval otherwise a fine of 50,000 would be charged as after penalty in delay.[1]
Jammu and Kashmir is under double lockdown, the first after abrogation of articles 370 and 35A and second related to Covid-19 and left the erstwhile state in disarray. According to the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) the economy of state is been struggling and loss of roughly $2.4 billion in the first four months of lockdown. The estimated industry loss for January 2020 to June 2020 amount around $2.9bilion. The President of KCCI Sheikh Ashiq said, the state economy is in complete mess, estimated loss of $5.3 billion in the 10 months of lockdown.
Agriculture, real estate, handicrafts, tourism, and IT and every business in the state saw a 50 percent drop in earning. The unemployment rate drastically increases in Jammu and Kashmir, in first six months of lockdown over 20 percent of population remain unemployed. The situation of unemployment gets worsen with the Indian government granting domicile certificates to outsider, thus allowing them to be eligible for government jobs. Tourism sector also took a hit, from August 2019 to October 2019 a decline of 71 percent in revenue of tourism sector is recorded.
Revocation of special status and ongoing lockdown has also violated the humanitarian laws. People do not have right to access to information, speech and to move Indian constitution. Internet has been disabled in the territory.[1] The lockdown has also made India disobeying / violating customary International law. People of Jammu and Kashmir have no access to medication/medical facility as they are living in militarized zone already. According to article 42 of 1907 Hague Regulations states that any territory controlled by hostile army is occupied territory. By interpreting the article state of Jammu and Kashmir is under occupation by Indian army. The human rights are violated by occupied forces in state, worst in the scenario India is not a signatory of Geneva protocols. Every Government has great atrocities carried out in Jammu and Kashmir on its credit, one of prime example is Armed forces special power act (AFSPA) 1990, which has vigorously jeopardized human rights. RSS influenced Modi regime has surpassed every lenient limit to express its brutality using state machinery.
Revoking of special status has given the center more power and direct intervention to regulate people in the name of law and order. Use of Pellet guns is been introduced in Jammu and Kashmir to maneuver the mass protest.[2] Hundreds of people are blind by using of pellet guns. Extrajudicial killings forced detention in the name investigation is normal practice in Jammu and Kashmir. According to human rights commission human rights in Jammu and Kashmir are been violated like in no other place. Now the special status has been revoked, Indian military, police and order maintaining agencies have got direct sovereignty over people. Hundreds of thousands of Kashmiris have been assassinated, paralyzed, and forced disappeared and Indian claims of being largest democracy of world and secular state. Now the status has been removed and the government in rule is right winged extremist clear propagator of greater Bharat and Hindutva.
Indian Efforts of Practicing New Normal:
Pakistan and India fought three major wars in past and witnessed multiple crisis after the nuclearization of South Asia. The Presence of nuclear weapons made crisis more threatening. After the election in 2014, BJP government came to power and announced a tougher stance on Pakistan. Indian Prime minister blamed Pakistan for having a helping hand in 2016 terror attack In Uri, “Pakistan can’t go unpunished” and they pledge for response. Indian claimed that they did a surgical strike across Line of Control on militant hideouts. Pakistan rejected Indian claim of surgical strike inside Line of Control and assert as hallucination.
An incident of suicide bombing happened On February 14, 2019 in Srinagar on a convoy of military vehicles. 40 Central reserve Police Force Reserve (CRPF) killed in this suicide attack.. Indian military official blamed Pakistani Intelligence agencies that they had control over the perpetrators of the attack, but Pakistan has rejected these allegations. The tensions between two arc rivals has increased due to this suicide. Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan offered Indian that we are willing to cooperate on “actionable intelligence” and to “take action” if India provide any proof of Pakistani involvement in this incident.
There are different perceptions about Pulwama attack in Pakistan. Pakistani establishment and government believe that the attack was a false flag operation by Indians to gain people support because BJP losing his popularity and they exploit anti Pakistani sentiment for electoral gain. The second perception is the suicide bomber Adil Ahmed Dar is from Indian occupied Kashmir and he is humiliated and harassed by Indian Forces. These atrocities motivated him to join Jaish-e-Muhammad and his connection with them is due to disaffection with state. Lt Gen D.S Hooda, who is former head of India’s Northern Command, he said “it is not possible to bring such huge amounts of explosives by infiltrating the border”.
On 26 February 2019, Indian Air Force violated Pakistan’s airspace and strike near Balakot. This is clear violation on territorial sovereignty. Indian claimed that they hit the Jaish-e-Muhammad hideout and killed 350 terrorists inside Pakistan territory. Pakistan response to Indian air strike in Balakot is proportional and took down two Indian aircraft and captured one pilot. Pakistan government returned the pilot. This act of Pakistan to deescalate the conflict in region. Prime Minister Modi threatened Pakistan in his election rally, that our nuclear armed missiles are ready if they did not return our pilot.
India make security environment of South Asia fragile by crossing the international borders and engaged in air battle with Pakistan. The reason behind Indian madness requires deep understanding of new normal mantra, which brings forth new fangled rules of engagement. The act of breaching the sovereignty and autonomy of a state is clearly abnormal and illegal. The sovereignty and territorial integrity have been turned under the shade of the modernized international arena.
India while following suite, destroyed the basic understanding of nuclear deterrence since there is no other example of creating new normal in the existence of nuclear deterrence. Therefore, it seems like either ‘normal’ is accepted to be logical with the nuclear deterrence or ‘abnormal’ to refuse it. This attempt to create the situation of new normal by India leads to unsettled definition of nuclear deterrence. It will lead the security environment of region toward instability resulting in events like balakot.
Modi’s Mindset of Military Posturing:
The South Asian region has gone through many dark phases after its nuclearization mainly because of the confrontation between nuclear armed states present there; India and Pakistan. India’s anti-Pakistan policies has resulted in a continuous threat for the region’s security. Standoffs between both these states have now become regular occurrences, and each of these military standoffs was a result of Indian belligerent nature.
A defense package of $66.9 billion has been announced by the Indian government for fiscal year 2020/21. It is overall 9.4 increase in defense budget compared to last year. Donald Trump on his visit to India in February 2020 sign a military deal worth more than $3 billion. Trump said we make best weapons, airplanes, missiles and rockets and we are now dealing with India.[1] Indians have been working to have an edge over Pakistan through a proactive strategy. The main aim behind this proactive strategy was to seize and hold Pakistani territory for leverage in post conflict bargaining.[2] Modernization is being carried out in all three branches of military i.e. Army, Navy and Air force but analysis depicts their focus to be on the Air force. As both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, so, a strong and developed air force could enhance the capability to carry out a limited and swift action. The recent Balakot strikes by India and Pakistan’s Quid pro Quo plus response have made India to emphasize on investing heavily in their air power to dominate Pakistan in a limited conflict. The stats have proved that India was severely aggrieved by Pakistan’s response. During the first 50 days of this new BJP government, PM Modi has invested Rs.8500 crore on defense deals, out of which, Rs.8000 Crore has been spent on Air force mainly on buying new jets and procurement of new air defense missiles. (International, 2019).
All the three forces after Pulwama had been given emergency powers to buy equipment of their choice costing up to Rs.300 crore per case. A rethinking after Balakot has pushed India to deploy several its air defense units close to the border for the purpose of countering Pakistan. These air defense units include Akash Air Defense Missile Systems along with the Russian Kvadrat and old legacy systems. The future plans are to modify MRSAM air defense system produced by Israel and induct the costly S400 missile system made by Russia.
Indian Army’s frontline soldiers will reportedly be equipped with new assault rifles under a contract of Rs. 700 crores between Indian Ministry of Defense and US firm Sig Sauer. With this contract India will get around 72,400 assault rifles. These new rifles are part of army’s bid to acquire around 700,000 assault rifles in 2017, but these 72,400 rifles will be acquired under the fast track procurement procedure. Besides, Indian army is also planning to buy around 5,719 sniper rifles from global firms in January 2020 which would be replacing the Dragunov SVD rifles. These new rifles include .338 Lapua Magnum Scorpio TGT by Beretta and .50 calibre M95 by Barrett. The newly purchased sniper rifles will be given to the troops deployed along LOC.
On the visit of US Secretary Mike Pompeo, India took a step towards a major defense deal. India wants ten more P8 I aircrafts for surveillance, reconnaissance, and anti-submarine operations. This deal is worth around Rs. 22,500 crores.[2] The government of India placed order for 22 AH-64 E Apache helicopters as part of $1.4 billion deal back in September 2015. Apaches will replace the vintage Mi-35 Russian helicopters. Indian Air force received four of these and four more are coming soon, all of which would then be moved to the Pathankot Air force station in Jammu and Kashmir. This deal was an addition to the order for 15 CH-47F Chinook heavy lift choppers from Boeing.
India is also looking forward to buying 30-armed sea guardian (predators) drones for over $ 2.5 billion from the US. Each the Army, Air force and Navy will be provided with 10 of these.[1] Furthermore, Russia has offered India to provide it with SU-57 stealth Jets but recently Indian Air Force chief said that they can consider the jets only when they will be added to Russian air force.[2] S-400 triumph missile systems are being purchased from Russia under a deal worth around $5.43 billion which was followed by another $3 billion deal for the lease of Akula-1 nuclear powered attack submarine.[3] Indian government import 240 Spike Anti-Tank Guided Missiles and 12 launchers, they deploying these Israeli made Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Spike medium range along the line of control.
Kashmir a flashpoint of regional instability:
Adolf Hitler said “when diplomacy ends war begins” but in modern time war is not a wise option. The countries have advanced weapons and these weapons will cause massive destructions.
The special status of Kashmir granted through Article 370 was revoked through Presidential order, which also bifurcate the Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories. This move of Modi’s government is against the international law, article 42 of Hague regulations 1907 prohibited the occupying power to take over a territory under its unlawful control. Article 42 of Hague Convention 1907 stated that “Territory is considered occupied when it is actually placed under the authority of hostile army. The occupation extends only to the territory where such authority has been established and can be exercised”. Pakistan and India are not part of this Hague Convention 1907 but it is widely accepted as customary international law.
The revocation of articles was most notable happening in the history of South Asia. These unilateral actions of Indian government are likely changed the history and leads to increased instability in South Asia.
After the abrogation of articles, India has threatened the whole world with nuclear war, the defense minister indicates to change its no first use policy of nuclear weapons. It intimidates the peace of this region and serious global consequences. India and Pakistan fought four major wars since their independence and these wars were different from today as both countries are nuclear powers and ample piles of nuclear weapons to destroy each other. In this current situation, changing of no first use policy to first use are an irresponsible and direct threat to regional stability. Indian anguished behavior has increased and violated line of control, using cluster bombs, heavy weapons and targeting civilian population inside Azad Kashmir. Government of Pakistan indicating that India may initiate war to divert the world attentions from the deteriorated situation of Kashmir. India want to hide his face from global community by engaging Pakistan in a total war.
India and Pakistan share a long common border and in any crisis the reaction time across it is very low, which creates a notion of strategic depth. Both countries cannot initiate preventive war and no option to carry out their war battles on proxy lands. India is on role of power maximization and want to be regional hegemon through aggressive military purchases, and different military deals with United States and Russia. These military agreements create imbalance in South Asia and bring instability in the region. Indian aggressive behavior towards Pakistan leaving no space for peaceful engagement and dialogues. Unsettled Kashmir dispute seems to be impossible to resolve.
Way Forward:
Kashmiris have suffered extremely since the partition of sub-continent. India and Pakistan fighting our Kashmir since day one of their independence, the resources which benefits them have been diverted to fighting. The central point of the dispute is that Kashmiris have lived miserably on earth as second-class citizens in their own land. The abrogation article 370 will add fuel to fire. The United Nations should intervene in the matter under article 33 of the UN charter which says: “The parties to any dispute, the continuance of which is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, shall, first of all, seek a solution by negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means of their own choice. The Security Council shall call upon the parties to settle their dispute by such means when it deems necessary.
- Kashmir issue should be resolved through cordial means between two archrivals, and the grievances of the Kashmiri Muslims need to be considered.
- International community came ahead and listen groans of Kashmiris and resolve the dispute accordance to will of people
- The solution of Kashmir is to provide a conflict resolution model which creates a win-win solution for all the parties involved in the conflict.
- Pakistan should raise the matter of Kashmir on international forum and keep highlighting It, so the name of India as the so called biggest democracy of the world should be uncovered in the context of human rights violations in the state of Jammu and Kashmir.38
- It is now need of time that UN and major powers should address the disputed status of Kashmir on first priority and give Kashmiri people their rights as directed in UN charter and its resolutions.
- International media and human rights organizations and human rights organization must be given access to the region so the inviolability of the right of Kashmir is upheld. A proactive emphasis by the United Nation special envoy is required to revoke the black laws.
- International media invited to visit Pakistan side of the line of control, they can compare the situation of Azad Kashmir and Indian occupied Kashmir, where access is unavailable.
- The world has to stop India from its irrational war mongering attitude, and the atrocities that it is committing against innocent Kashmiris.
Conclusion:
The blend of demographic engineering has placed Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists on warpath in Jammu and Kashmir it is perhaps the most significant of BJP’s manifesto to determine Kashmir as an integral part of India. BJP’s objective is to make state Jammu and Kashmir Muslims minority state and they sink deeply in their ideology of Hindutva.
There has been a continuous struggle by the people of Kashmir for their right of self-determination for more than seven decades. Kashmir is also a nuclear flash point between two of South Asia’s enemy countries. Both these countries fought several wars on Kashmir. After the revoking of article 370 and article 35A both countries can come face to face again. India unlawfully annexing the Jammu and Kashmir, wants to make Jammu and Kashmir Hindu Majority state by making demography change. If this demographic change happens in Kashmir any future plebiscite in the state will be severely impacted by its bifurcation. On August 5, 2017 Kashmir was placed under siege Indian security forces controlled all the area, closing of all logistical provinces and even food and medical supplies in the state.
India’s heavy spending for the modernization of its forces would arm the country to its teeth. The heavy weaponization by India is a matter of national security for Pakistan. Subsequently, Pakistan will have to follow suit which would lead the region towards instability. This modernization of Indian forces is just like a double-edged sword for them as Pakistan is always ready to fight fire with fire. It can’t be ruled out that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers and there exists a continuous tension between them, the recent post-Balakot incident is a clear indication that things are not going smoothly. The conflict between both these nations has serious implications for regional stability. Adding to this, BJP government based on Hindutva rhetoric is considered as a loose cannon. In their recent manifesto they indicated towards increasing their force striking capability which shows that they are on a warpath. Nothing can be predicted in the fog of war and the escalation ladder is not easy to control every time.
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