Dissecting Kashmir's Economy - Post Revocation of Article 370 of Indian Constitution
Dissecting Kashmir's Economy - Post Revocation of Article 370 of Indian Constitution
Written By Ayesha WaheedIntroduction
After the Indian government’s unilateral decision of revoking Article 370 of Indian constitution on 5th August, 2019, it would not be wrong to say that the whole Indian Occupied Jammu & Kashmir went to the black hole, as this political move was considered and proposed by Modi Sarkar, taken for the development of this region, but instead of developing, the region faced enormous economic losses. This submissive decision brought IOJK, the biggest internet shutdowns, travel and communication blockades, poor connectivity, shortages of food and medicines, increased school-college dropouts, inflation, and whatnot. On one side, India is attracting foreign investments for their region's economic prosperity, on the contrary, IIOJK has lost all local public, private and state investments as well, due to complete lockdown and divine presence of Indian troops and threatening conflictual environment. Besides these factors, Indian government had restricted the Indian Occupied J&K’s population to deal among intra businesses instead of providing them the opportunities to explore and trade with other regions, on national and international level as well. Indeed, India’s economy is the fastest growing economy in the South Asian region, but keeping this fact aside, Indian government has always paid minimal attention towards Kashmir’s economic growth.
Skeptical Illustration of Kashmir’s Economy
Soon after the revocation of Article 370 and 35 A of Indian constitution on 5th of August 2019, when Home Minister Amit Shah’s announcement was embraced in both houses of Indian parliament to unilaterally bifurcate the terrain of Indian occupied Kashmir into two Union territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, the bitter truth revealed as IOK has suffered a loss of Rs. 17,878 crores (approx $2.4 billion), only in the duration of next four months. The figures were disclosed by the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) in their annual comprehensive sector report “Preliminary Economic Loss Assessment Report'' on losses based on IOK’s (GDP) gross domestic product of 2017-18.
The methodology opted by KCCI to calculate these figures was based on cluster sampling of ten districts of IOK comprising 55% of the total population in the time span of four months. The report further broadcasted the loss of employment in the region over the four lac jobs, almost estimated about 4,96,000 jobs2 , due to intense lockdowns, blockades and closures of software houses of information technology and e-commerce businesses, as these sectors work directly proportional to the systematic communication and connectivity, and that was hugely disrupted by Indian government after the revocation of article 370.3 As per the Chairman KCCI, it was difficult to assess the exact losses, Kashmir had suffered due to uncertain conditions of the valley, but it was estimated that from August-October 2019, Indian occupied J&K had lost Rs. 10,000 crore worth business, resulting in weakening the economy. The report issued by The Forum of Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir, stated that almost every business sector in Indian occupied Kashmir, whether it is agriculture, horticulture, Information Technology startups, tourism, transport or handicrafts, all had suffered at least 50% loss in its earnings after August 5, 2019 curfew imposed by the Indian government.
On 6th August 2020, exactly after a year of revocation of Article 370 of Indian constitution, Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), published another report, revealing the utmost horrible economic disparity in Kashmir’s economic conditions. The report unfolded that Indian occupied Kashmir had suffered a loss of about Rs. 40,000 crores since 2019.4 Furthermore, the statement issued by Pakistan's Special Representative to the United Nations, Munir Akram on March 15, 2021, expressed the serious concerns over this turmoil, he stated at UN Security Council that the people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJ&K), have suffered an economic loss of over five billion dollars since military siege imposed on August 5, 2019. The question here arises, how could the Bharatiya Janata Party BJP led government along with the National Democratic Alliance could claim that the decision of revoking article 370, has led the Kashmir economy to boost up, whereas the ground realities talk about a whole different scenario.
The figures mentioned in the following table are taken from the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI)’s Preliminary Economic Loss Assessment Report.
Decline in Agriculture and Horticulture and Annual GSDP
Being an exceptionally fertile land, the Kashmir valley encompasses the cultivation of cereal crops, dry fruits, saffron, barley, cherries, corn, millet, rice, orange, peaches, pears, sorghum, vegetables, wheat and apples, which ultimately depends upon the ratio of naturally glacier’s meltwater. This agricultural prospect ensures an efficient contribution to Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir’s economy, particularly 200,000 metric tons of apples are exported around the markets of India. The Horticulture sector provides the major percentage of profitable trade in this region, worth about Rs. 80-90 Billion annually which contributes around 10% of state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). According to the statistics, in the duration of the years 2016-17, the apple production rose to 1.73 million tons, walnut export’s share was 7% at international level, securing the GSDP (Gross State Domestic Product) of Jammu & Kashmir to reach $22.64 billion.7 Furthermore, in the years 2018-19, the state’s GSDP had grown 11.7 % marking to earn profits worth Rs. 1.57 lac crore, as per government’s data.8 Additionally, in 2018, the economy of Indian occupied Kashmir was performing better among the other states of India, with a booming economy ranking second highest on non-tax revenue and third highest on the tax revenue lists. It was among the top ten for its low poverty rate of 10.35 percent against the national average of 21.92 percent. The state’s per capita gross state domestic product had risen to 100,000 Indian rupees (INR) in 2016-17 while its net state domestic product was over INR 780 billion.
On the contrary, in the year 2020, the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) had only purchased Rs.70.45 Crores worth of apples, while the average revenue from apple sales used to be around Rs. 14,000 crores per annum, resulting in a loss of 1.35 lac metric tons of its crop, due to restricted transport facilities. According to KCCI, Rs. 8000 crore has been designated by the Indian government, for the purchase of apples which has caused price turmoil and panic sales.9 In accordance with the twin-shocks of Aug 5 2019 and Covid19 lockdown, there is a decline of 30.5 percent in the goods and services tax (GST) revenue during the April-August 2020 period.
Termination of Cottage Industries after August 5, 2019
The Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir region, majorly encompasses the breadwinners, who earn through manufacturing carpets, handicrafts, rugs and shawls at low levels, in spite of this, they manage to earn huge quantums of benefits through exporting these products all over the world, thus contribute to national economy by the means of foreign exchange. There are almost 250,000 registered artisans and weavers in IOJK. Analysing the factors of production, Kashmiris have been minimizing their cost of production by appointing their house as land, cheap local men and women, whether literate or illiterate as labor, investments as capital and entrepreneurship, thus producing heavenly employment opportunities and profits by manufacturing these products. Mainly these cottage industries are in Srinagar, Badgam and Ganderbal. But after the revocation of article 370, the figures of profits declined due to the complete travel-communication blockades, due to which the artisans and weavers solely encountered an estimated loss of almost Rs. 2,520 crore in manufacturing the bits and pieces of rugs, according to KCCI. As consonance with the KCCI report, “The annual turnover of the handicraft sector has fallen from Rs. 2000 crore to 9000 crores in the last few years.” According to Muheet Mehraj, founder of Kashmir Box, an online store for Kashmiri handicrafts, which ships local products to all over the world, stated that they had lost about $420,000 due to continuous internet disruptions, since 5th August, 2019 lockdown.
The termination in cottage industries after August 5, 2019, worsened the ratio of employment (labor) in the state as recorded in July 2020, the state’s average unemployment rate at 17.9 percent was twice that of the national average at 9.5 percent. As per the figures revealed by The Forum of Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir, stated that more than 20,000 weavers who were employed by units making silk carpets were left stranded when importers looked elsewhere due to the communication blackout.
A Halt in Tourism Sector
Regardless of the installation of more than seven lac Indian army troops in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir and the hazardous conflictual environment since the decades, the tourism industry has managed to flourish and sustain in these circumstances substantially. The season of blooming tulips and hilly peaky mountains covered with moderate snowfall has remained a beautiful sight for tourists from all over the world. But after August 5, 2019, the tourism sector experienced a tremendous financial loss in business. It is to be assessed that due to the complete lockdown in IOJK, the tour operators, photographers, tourist transporters, hotels and houseboats got a major hit back economically and lost their jobs accordingly. In addition to this, the cottage industry also experienced a major loss vice versa, as their carpets, rugs and shawls remained unsold during the lockdown in the absence of tourists.
Apart from this, few areas of Indian occupied Kashmir entirely depend upon the earnings resulting from the tourism sector, such as Gulmarg area which supports the livelihood of almost 20,000 local residents by the means of tourism, as this area constitutes the best hotels and tourist spots in IOJK. As reported by KCCI, during the first four months after the unilateral undemocratic decision of Indian government to revoke the article 370, the tourism sector has suffered a loss of Rs. 9191 crores. Out of 4,96,000 jobs loss from August-December 2019, 1,40,500 jobs were lost by the tourism sector solely.12 The General Secretary at Jammu & Kashmir Society for Trekking and Environmental Preservation showed serious concerns regarding decline in tourism in the valley, as he explained that, in the absence of huge malls or industries, Kashmir valley could not bear the losses of earnings produced by tourism.
One of the houseboat owners, named Riyaz Ahmed, near the Nigeen lake declared 2019 for kashmiris as the era of stone age, as they are not able to earn by any means, due to intense lockdown in the region. He added that he had 15 other family members and this lockdown had disrupted their livelihood.13 Another hotel owner, Danish Farooq narrated that due to the August 2019 curfew, he faced a huge blow, as his hotel near Dal lake, was having pre-occupied bookings worth Rs.30-35 lacs in the season.14Manzoor Reshi, a horseman residing in the nearby village of Treran mentioned that he had lost over $26,000 due to the lockdown. Bashir Kongposh, General Secretary, Kashmir Traders and Manufacturers Federation (KTMF), stated that the tourism sector solely contributes Rs 12000 crore to the economy while trade contributes Rs 12 000 to Rs 13000 crore annually, and both these sectors were left crippled after August 5, 2019. In August 2020, the Public Information Officer (PIO) of the tourism department said that following the abrogation of Article 370 and the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic, the loss of revenue on account of the non-functional tourism industry in Kashmir was approximately 1166.81 crore rupees.
In addition to the prior facts, it is mandatory to mention that the tourism industry is interlinked with the foreign exchange and investments, and to make sure the increment in these two, the government has to ensure the peaceful and sustainable environment for the tourists. As per Katherine Adeney, director of the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute, “Investment is unlikely to be forthcoming as long as the state is consumed with violence, or the threat of the violence.”15 According to the statistics of Jammu & Kashmir Tourism Department, in 2018, Kashmir had received 316,434 tourists between August and December and in 2019, this number fell to 43,059 for the same period, marking a decline of 86%.
Graphical illustration of Decline in Tourism in the year 2018 and 2019
Indian Occupied Jammu & Kashmir discriminated from the Digital India
In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi ensured the vision of Digital India in his election manifesto along with targeting the muslim minority in India, as these two motives were quite attractive to Hindu extremist mindsets. The ultra-nationalist Hindutva regime of BJP originated PM was put forward to exterminate Muslims from all over India particularly from Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir. By Digital India, he meant to provide freedom of speech, opinion, thought, movement and specifically right of access to Information in India. But in IOJK, after the imposition of complete lockdown after 5th August and double lockdown after the surge in COVID-19, the people had experienced the longest ever internet siege, which had eventually restricted them from getting information regarding anything going on outside their homes and world. It is to be said that in Modi’s tenure, IOJK’s broadband speed is now among the slowest in the world and internet penetration is below 50 per cent. The E-commerce sector alone witnessed 10,00017 people losing their jobs, soon after August 5 to December 2019, as their courier services along with other services got disturbed due to internet shutdowns.
Moreover, these communication barriers restrained students from getting proper education through online classes, doctors from receiving proper medical awareness regarding the virus from the world, businessmen from communicating their trade calls, promoting the disempowerment of knowledge, skills and commerce in IOJK. This complete internet siege fundamentally led the whole region to face the ultimate closure of daily life tasks. Contemporarily, the reasons of internet shutdowns are considered to be relative to maintain the public safety and public order or even in the peaceful environment, hence during Modi’s tenure, India has resorted to internet shutdowns more than any other country worldwide. Though the right to information has been mentioned in international laws and Universal Human Rights Declaration as the fundamental right, the Indian government has not removed the extended internet blackout from the region despite the Supreme court’s ruling about the freedom of the internet. Furthermore, the Internet Freedom Foundation, a digital-rights non-profit organization criticized the Indian Democratic Republic fascist regimes and declared them “anti-democratic and unconstitutional”.
According to Freedom House- the US-based non-profit organization that conducts research on democracy and human rights paid attention towards Indian government’s restrained policies of abjuring the freedom of expression of its citizens since the last three years, pointing to internet shutdowns alongside the digital targeting of government critics and the promotion of disinformation by political leaders. Besides these facts, Modi’s fascist regimes hence proved by this authoritarian move of internet siege, where it costs Rs. 2 crore per hour loss to the government of India due to internet shutdowns solely in 2020.
According to the figures revealed by the Software Freedom Law Center (SFLC), a Delhi-based digital rights group, show that the number of internet shutdowns has jumped from three in 2012 to five in 2013, six in 2014, 14 in 2015, 31 in 2016, 79 in 2017, 134 in 2018, 106 in 2019 and 132 in 2020.
Conclusion
The unilateral move of revoking article 370 of Indian constitution by Indian nationalist government is nonetheless a move of abrogating the identity of Kashmiris residing in muslimmajority region Indian Illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Along with this decision, New Domicile Law, Citizenship Amendment Act, and many more abruptly taken parliamentary decisions are objectively made to suppress the muslim majority state. This political suppression of the Modi government has been also recorded several times by the Forum of Human Rights in Jammu & Kashmir, whose report mentioned the repercussions after August 5, 2019. Though Amit Shah, the Home Minister, proposed this action for the development of Indian occupied Kashmir as he considered Article 370 as a hurdle for the prosperity of Kashmir’s economy, it has been witnessed to be only worsening till date.
Indian government had tirelessly made efforts to decelerate the economic parabola of Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir by withdrawing the public and private investments from the region. Furthermore, the number of detentions had increased in the region after the revocation of article 370, which had disrupted the lives of Kashmiris in every way including economically, as the detainees used to be the breadwinners of the families. In addition to this, the known businessmen were also charged under false allegations by the National Investigation Agency (NIA), who were providing employment opportunities to thousands of Kashmiris. Moreover, the Indian government has not compensated the Kashmiri artisans, weavers and local entrepreneurs, who have suffered economic losses due to the complete curfew and communication blockade. The basic fundamental human rights, such as, right to information, mobility and connectivity, are completely disrupted in the region since August 5, 2019, endorsing the limited democracy in the so-called Indian Democratic Republic, resulting in declining tourism, internet clampdowns, loss of education and slackening E-commerce. Keeping the above mentioned facts about the Indian policies after the revocation of Article 370 of Indian constitution on August 5, 2019, which had boosted up the doom of IOJK’s economy, the International community should pay heed towards this matter, so the economy of Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir could be revived in order to maintain its survival.
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