Glacier Retreat in Kashmir Valley and its Implications On SouthAsia
Glacier Retreat in Kashmir Valley and its Implications On SouthAsia
Abstract
Non
Traditional security threats pave the way for traditional security threats
which has been accentuated by socio-political factors leading to a recession of
resources namely the Glacier retreat in Kashmir valley which has jeopardized
the life of many people in South Asia and put its security and stability at
stake. This research seeks to explore the phenomena of glacier retreat along
with socio-political factors in the Kashmir Valley and its ramifications on
South Asia, particularly in terms of escalating political tensions between
India and Pakistan.
Keywords:
Climate Change, South Asian Security, Indo-Pak political tensions
INTRODUCTION:
Glaciers
are an important factor in the ecosystem and sustain life on earth by providing
water crucial for drinking, hydroelectric and agricultural purposes. Kashmir is
located in the northwestern corner of the South Asian peninsula, surrounded by
India, Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan. The state of Kashmir provides an
important point of interaction with the Central Asian region through the
neighboring former Soviet country of Tajikistan. Kashmir comprises three parts
Jammu Kashmir and Ladakh which is under Indian occupation; Azad Kashmir which
is administered by Pakistan and Aksai Chin administered by China.
By Qirat Mirza
Besides its indispensable strategic location, Kashmir is endowed with enormous resources including a network of glaciers that have sculpted the region's distinct topography and hydrology. It has made it a bone of contention between two nuclear powers namely India and Pakistan. Pakistan deems Kashmir its lifeline because being an agricultural county it needs water for irrigation and most of its water is coming from Kashmir valley. India has launched hydroelectric projects on water sources in Kashmir that have caused a rapid decline in the flow of water to Pakistan, which according to the Indus Water Treaty supplies water to Pakistan.
The Himalayan range of Kashmir comprises many glaciers namely Kalohi, Machoi, Thajwas, Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, and glaciers around Hamrukh. According to the reports, glaciers in the northwestern part of the Himalayas are declining at a more rapid rate. Along with the mounting rate of deforestation, temperature, and pollution, the militarization in the region has also made it vulnerable to climate change. However, it will have implications for South Asian water needs and will impact stability in the region. Comprehending environmental factors namely Glacier retreat in compliance with the ongoing conflict will provide a new approach to its historical background. This research seeks to explore the causes of the massive decline of glaciers, anticipate the contingencies for indigenous people living there, and examine the political dynamics of South Asia because glaciers in the Himalayas feed the main regions of South Asia namely Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, and India.
Hypothesis
Environmental
causes along with socio political factors namely presence of military and
violence are contributing to glacier retreat which will have implications on
South Asian stability.
Causes
of Glacier Retreat in Kashmir Valley
Military
operations, civil wars, and armed conflicts are polluting our environment and
have raised serious concerns about the global climatic shift. Armed conflicts
and military activities are depleting natural resources and contaminating land,
air, sea, etc. with the use of landmines, chemical, and nuclear weapons. The
toxic emissions from military operations result in damaging the ozone layer
beyond repair. The environmental stress in Kashmir is both a cause and an
effect of local conflict and militarization in the region
The
Himalayan glaciers, which go about as fundamental water repositories for almost
two billion individuals in South Asia have gone through tremendous changes in
ongoing many years, representing a danger to the water supply and security of
the region. The retreating of glaciers in the Kashmir Himalayas, specifically,
is happening at a disturbing speed. The reports indicate that the Machoi
glacier in the vicinity of north-western Kashmir’s Drass region, with a height
of 3,762 meters and 5,050 meters above sea level has retreated by 29%.
Similarly, the Kolahoi glacier known as Goddess of Light, located about 35
kilometers upstream from Pahalgam, has retreated by 18 %. Notably, Siachen Glacier is a part of Ladakh situated North of Nubra Valley, which is part of the eastern Karakoram range in the
Himalayan mountains in eleven years, the glacier had receded nearly 800 meters,
and in seventeen years about 1700 meters.
Along
with global warming and the temperature rise, some socio-political factors have
been contributing to the retreat of the Glaciers of Kashmir Valley namely the
presence of the military which is carrying out inhumane activities in Kashmir.
India has deployed 9 lakh soldiers in Kashmir who use chemical weapons, and pellet
guns to humiliate Kashmiris producing pollutants, which settle on glaciers and
darken their surfaces, leading to increased absorption of sunlight and
accelerated melting. The Indian military has been cutting trees to set up military camps which have upsurge emissions of carbon dioxide leading to a rise
in temperature and melting of glaciers. India
Metrological Department (IMD) reported that the Temperature in Kashmir
has mounted by 1C and 0.05 every year. Deforestation has caused a 35 %
decrease in monsoon and a 10 % decrease in Snow.
The world’s second largest glacier, “Siachen Glacier “has been a battleground between India and Pakistan because of its dispensable strategic location. This made them deploy their forces copiously there. Sadly, the glacier, which is nicknamed as the world's highest garbage dump, is now burdened with over tons of toxic waste and pollutants as a result of the region's extensive militarization efforts. This collection covers military operations' leftovers, such as helicopters that have crashed, discarded tools, and gun-related trash. The existence of a sizable military infrastructure, which not only contributes to hazardous waste contamination but also upsets the delicate equilibrium of the glacier, heightens the intensity of the problem.
These non-biodegradable
elements' existence increases the greenhouse effect, which traps heat in the
atmosphere and causes localized warming. As a result, the melting of the
glaciers is accelerated, upsetting the environment's natural equilibrium. The
development of unstable glacial lakes as a result of excessive glacial meltwater accumulation is one particularly concerning effect. These lakes continually run
the risk of experiencing Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which are caused
by the destabilizing impacts of pollution and debris. These floods could result
in devastating downstream flooding, which would affect both the ecosystem and
human populations.
Implications
of Glacier Retreat in the Kashmir Region
The
implications of glacier retreat in Kashmir Valley are becoming increasingly
apparent, by looking over its environment, water resources, biodiversity, and
local livelihoods. Kalohi glacier being the largest glacier of Himalayan provides
water for making land fertile for the cultivation of two crops apples and saffron.
Besides this, it also feeds two major tributaries of river Jhelum namely Lidder
River and Sind River. The meeting point marks the junction where the waters of
the Lidder River, known for its crystal blue hues, join the larger Jhelum
River. One of the main attractions of this region is the well-known tourist
spot of Pahalgam, located in the heart of the Ladder Valley. Since in the
Lidder Valley, agriculture and tourism account for about 95% of household
income, the Kalohai glacier retreating at an alarming rate will have repercussions
for the economy of the region by becoming impedance in tourism, agriculture, and
lives of people by leading to food insecurity for whom are feeding from its
tributaries.
The
Machoi glacier in Dras region of northeast Ladakh feeds RIVER DRAS. , which is an
important river that lies in Kargil district of Latah region of J&K. This
68 km long river rises from Machoi glacier near Zojila Passs and then flow
towards north-east. Drass valley of Ladakh has been carved out of Dras River. The
Mashko Nala and the Gamru Nala are the two important tributaries of the Dras
River. These tributaries originate in the glaciers located in Macho valley. The
Dras River is one of the important tributaries of Shigar River which eventually
meets the Indus. After having a look at its significance, we can analyze the repercussions
of its retreat on regional water needs.
The
melting water from Siachen glacier is the main source of the Nubra River in
Ladakh which flows into the Shyok River. The Shyok River then joins the Indus
River which is 3,180 kilometers long and flows through Pakistan. The Indus
River supplies water to the surrounding communities and agricultural system on
its way towards the Arabian Sea. Pakistan is very concerned about the
environment of Siachen Glacier not only from the military and security point of
view but also because the glacier is the lifeblood of Pakistan. The Siachen glacier’s ecology affects
Pakistan’s water availability and water quality.
Confrontation between
India and Pakistan
Pakistan and India have
fought three wars after the partition for Kashmir. It’s not only a territorial
conflict but an essential part that is requisite for the accomplishment of the
national interests of both countries namely survival. Pakistan deems Kashmir
its lifeline because it’s an agricultural country and most of its water is
coming from Kashmir valley which is illegally occupied by India. To lessen the
water dispute between India and Pakistan, an Indus Water Treaty was signed in
1960 by both counties which allocated the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum,
Chenab) to Pakistan and the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India. India
was conditioned to use water from the Western River if it doesn’t cause
recession in water flow towards Pakistan. Now, India is violating Indus Water
Treaty by launching hydroelectric projects including Dams, causing
ramifications on water sources in Pakistan, which has caused major concerns for
Pakistan.
India has always tried to
destabilize Pakistan by blocking its water coming from Kashmir Valley as it did
in 1948 and 1949. The abrogation of Article 370 has made Pakistan more
concerned. Even after Uri attack carried out on Army brigade in Indian Occupied
Kashmir, PM Modi said Blood and water
cannot flow together. He threatened to review Indus Water Treaty and to
exploit water of western rivers more. From Dec 2001 to June 2002, India
threatened to pull out of treaty by accusing Pakistan for supporting “terrorists”
targeting India. Even India made attempts to drown Pakistan in floods by
releasing water from its dams.
Siachen Glacier is
referred to as the "Highest Battlefield in the World"; The Simla
Agreement of 1972 did not establish the boundary between India and Pakistan. In
1984, India received intelligence that Pakistan was preparing "hot
suits" to capture Siachen Glacier. India prepared these suits and launched
Operation Meghdoot on 13 April 1984, deploying troops on Bilafond La Pass.
Since 1984, India has occupied the glacier and its tributaries, five passes of
the high Saltoro Ridge. Both Pakistan and India claim sovereignty over the
entire Siachen region and deploy armies but Pakistan Army does not control the
glacier itself. Pakistan controls the glacial valleys west of the Saltoro
Ridge. In 2003, an Armistice Treaty was signed between India and Pakistan which
ceased the firing between them but both counties have stationed their armies
there. Siachen Glacier is having extreme weather countries which have
jeopardized the lives of many soldiers serving there namely Gyari Avalanche of
2012 took the lives of many Pakistani soldiers. According to an estimate, so
far 2500 soldiers of both countries have lost their lives here without any gun
battle.
Kashmir is Nuclear Flash Point for being surrounded
by three nuclear powers namely India, Pakistan and China who have some claims
on the territory. The glaciers in Kashmir have been feeding all three countries
somehow, if they have any confrontation, the security of South Asia will become
at stake. For instance, glaciers in the northwestern part of the Himalayan
range, Machoi, Siachen and Kolahi feed the rivers which are tributaries of the
Indus River, a main source of water for Pakistan. If it continues to retreat at
an alarming rate, it will have repercussions not only for Kashmir but also for
India and Pakistan. In the last few years, Pakistan has condemned India's
attempt of building dams over the Chenab and Nelum River (a tributary of the
Jhelum River). Pakistan's nuclear doctrine endorses “Pakistan will use nuclear weapons
if it is made to face water scarcity from the Indian side”.
Pakistan even called India for complete
demilitarization of Siachin Glacier due to climate change vulnerability caused
by militarization, but India is not ready to leave it for the region's
strategic importance. Both countries have an interest in preserving glacier
control for their security concerns and national interests, despite knowing the
environmental risks associated with militarization. In addition, tensions
remain high due to territorial claims for Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir.
India endorses its claim on the territory of Gilgit Baltistan. If he launches
an attack on Pakistan to occupy Gilgit Baltistan for its rivers and glaciers,
Pakistan will unequivocally retaliate which may lead to a fourth military
confrontation between both countries.
Conclusion and Policy
Recommendations
Glacier retreat is a
climate change phenomenon that is linked to militarization and inhumane
activities in Kashmir and it will be addressed with the resolution of the
Kashmir issue. India has forcefully amalgamated Kashmir into Indian Union
against the will of its people, and for making their voices suppressed he is
using the military as a tool which has created more spark in their struggle for
Independence and made Kashmir more vulnerable to climate change.
Pakistan must be more
aggressive in establishing a Kashmir narrative. The academic literature on
Kashmir is weak. As a result, there is a lack of clarity regarding the
international status of the disputed territory, and Pakistan has not invested
in scholarly material to justify its holdings in Kashmir. Rather than depending
on an emotional and rhetorical approach, Pakistan could create a more
international legal aspect of the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan needs to
encapsulate the Kashmir conflict in the context of a new dimension namely
“Climate change and Security of South Asia “.The contemporary world is more
advanced and is moving towards soft power, it is having a notion of addressing
Nontraditional security threats, The Nontraditional security threats are giving
rise to Traditional security threats in Kashmir which is a matter of great
concern for the whole region, we need to tell the world what they want to
listen.
For our voice to be
listened all over the world we have to be internally robust enough which
involves being politically stable to deal with our own nontraditional security
threats involving law and order situations, and climate changes. According to
the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is presently the fifth most vulnerable
country to climate change in the world, having lost approximately 10,000 lives
and suffered economic damages totaling 3.8 billion USD from 1999 to 2018. By
doing so, Pakistan not only protects its interests and citizens but also
positions itself as a responsible and capable international actor. This, in
turn, strengthens its credibility and strengthens its voice when asking for
global collaboration and helps to solve important concerns like climate change,
which has far-reaching consequences on Kashmiris and South Asian water needs.
Last but not the least, if
war could be an option to resolve water dispute between both India and Pakistan
they would have done in 1949 when India blocked water of Pakistan. If glaciers
retreat in Kashmir it will have repercussions not only for Pakistan and but for
India too. According to environmental Peace Theory, peace can be built by
emphasizing the use of shared environmental
interests to bring people together. There should be a mechanism like Indus
Water Treaty to address the issue of demilitarization of Siachen Glacier by
both counties.
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Written By : Qirat Mirza
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